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Skills / Pickpocket
Skill · Steals

Pickpocket: the steals model

Who is truly elite at taking the ball away? Steals per 75 possessions, steal percentage, how far above the position average, and how often a player fouled to get there.

How the model works

1. Rate

Steals per 75 possessions, and steal percentage, the share of opponent possessions a player ends with a steal. Both remove minutes and pace, so a 1976 season and a 2024 season can be compared.

2. Against his position

Every player is compared with other guards, wings or bigs from the same season. Two steals per 75 means more from a big than from a guard, so the model also measures how far above his position average a player sat.

3. Fouls

Gambling for steals costs fouls. For guards and wings a small part of the score rewards staying out of foul trouble. For bigs, fouls are not counted, because the best rim protectors foul on drives, not on steal attempts. They still appear on the chart.

4. Percentiles

Each season is ranked against every qualified season in the same position, across all eras, then the four pieces are combined. A season counts if the player played at least half of the games and 20 minutes a game.

Guards and wings weight steal percentage 35%, rate against position 30%, raw steals per 75 25% and fouls 10%. For bigs, the score leans on raw steals (45%) and steal percentage (35%) and gives only 20% to rate against position, so a big has to be good at taking the ball, not just good for a center. No ranking is claimed within the top group. Several players in this chart are so close to each other that the data cannot separate them.

The steal profiles, plotted

Further out is better on every axis. Fouls are flipped, so a player who gambled less reaches further. Choose any player and any of his qualified seasons, up to four at a time, so the seasons you compare do not have to be consecutive.

PlayerSeasonTmStl/75Stl%vs posFouls/75

The players listed are those with at least two seasons in the 90th percentile of their position.

All numbers and calculations are original to MSquared Sports. Some of the data used to calculate era, player and opponent adjustments is taken from Basketball-Reference.com.
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