Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant was the 2nd pick in the 2007 draft behind all time bust Greg Oden to the all time bait and switch Seattle Supersonics that moved to OKC just one year later. Despite not being able to bench 185, Durant became one of the most consistently dominant scorers the league has seen. At nearly 7 feet, he was miscast as a shooting guard in his rookie campaign by basketball servant PJ Carlesimo and stunningly, the Sonics went 20-62. Moving to Oklahoma City and more importantly to small forward, KD made some stark improvements over his rookie of the year season, starting an 18-year streak of at least 25 points per game (still going through the 2026 season). His 3rd year saw another stark improvement, leading the league in scoring on excellent efficiency. He also was 2nd in MVP voting and All NBA 1st team, all at age 21. The Thunder won 50 games just to get the 8 seed and lose to eventual champion, Los Angeles Lakers. They didn’t go without a fight though, Kobe was held to just 26.9 pts/75 on -2 aTS efficiency. 2011 brought another scoring title, another all NBA 1st team and a conference finals appearance. This came with his first group of playoff masterpieces, including a 40/8/5 on +23 aTS vs Dallas that ended up in a loss.

2012 is where his peak begins. Another 2nd place in MVP, all NBA first team and a 3rd scoring title in 3 years. And this time, the Thunder made the finals against his forever rival, LeBron James. His adjusted for opponent numbers that post-season by series (pts/75, aTS) were: 27 on +6 in R1, 29 on +11 in R2, 28 on +14 in R3 against the Spurs on their 20 game win streak, and 32 on +13 against Miami in the finals. This is all time stuff. Despite losing 1-4 in the finals, KD was virtually unstoppable, and it was just his age 23 season. It was after the finals that KD’s career hit one of many key turning points: The James Harden trade. The Thunder offered James Harden 4 years/55.5mm instead of the max at the time 4 years/60mm. That negligible difference traded one of the best offensive engines ever for Kevin Martin. K-Mart was a good shooter but scored 14 pts/g in one season in OKC before going to Minnesota. One of the biggest failures of an NBA front office of the 21st century. Harden continued on to have an incredible MVP and hall of fame career in Houston while OKC struggled relative to their early success. 2013 brought a first round series against Harden, but more importantly against the filth that is Patrick Beverly. After trucking Westbrook’s knee, the Thunder went into round 2 undermanned. This is where the few flaws in KD’s game were revealed. As mentioned before, Durant could not bench 185 lbs at the combine. While this is a generally useless piece of information, it is worth noting that the one thing that limited him ever so slightly was physicality. Durant had a small but consistent drop in scoring production in the playoffs (like nearly every other NBA player ever), in part due to the more physical style and whistle of the post-season. Memphis had physicality in 2013. Combine that with no Westbrook and the Thunder were quickly sent home. While I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect Durant to have won that series considering the circumstances, it does show why Durant is not the most transcendent offensive player we’ve ever seen, but maybe somewhere around the 10th. He is not best suited to run or drive an offense. He can finish nearly any play anywhere on the floor with his nigh unblockable jumpshot and astounding shooting ability. But he doesn’t really get things going for an offense. While his scoring peak of 29 on +7 aTS is much more efficient than the likes of Kobe or Dwyane Wade, their pressure on the rim bends the defense so that the team can get better looks. Whether that’s immediately via a laydown pass or a lob, or it ends up being a swing swing hockey assist, the rim pressure and penetration of those guards and players like them adds an element that was never Durant’s forte. He had a really good handle for a seven footer, but not a handle you want to run an offense with. He was also a decent enough passer, for a seven foot perimeter player, but he never had great vision. He was, in the purest sense, a pure scorer. His scoring was so elite that his teams had some excellent offenses, but the lack of rim pressure and passing is what holds him back from the LeBron/Jordan/Magic level of offensive production.

His 2014 MVP campaign showed that even without Westbrook for nearly 40 games, the Thunder could continue to hum. He maintained his excellent scoring and the Thunder won 59 games. This marked his 5th consecutive All NBA first team, his 4th and final scoring title (32ppg) in 5 years, and the MVP. The 2014 playoffs was crazy, with the Thunder benefitting from the crazy Chris Paul foul shot heave situation in the conference semis, but couldn’t overcome a calf strain on Ibaka and lost to the Spurs. 2015 Durant breaks his foot and the Warriors ascend and win the title. So after a purely linear rise to the top from rookie year to 2012, a series of injuries, bad luck and a horrific trade put the Thunder as the topic of every morning sports show: Can Westbrook and KD win a title? The problem wasn’t really Russ or KD, they put up 4 years of a 6+ SRS in the regular season in a 5 year span (minus the KD foot injury in 2015). Some bad injury luck and also playing one of the 10 or so best teams of all time in the 2014 Spurs means you’re not going to win a title, it’s hard. 2016 brought another excellent season by SRS, but underperforming their point differential meant they “only” won 55 games and KD missed first team all NBA to Kawhi and LeBron. The Spurs and Warriors put up some of the best regular seasons of all time and it seemed like the Thunder’s window was closing. They did however, play BRILLIANT basketball against the 73 win Bay Area bombardiers, until Klay Thompson decided to turn into a thermonuclear warhead and mount a game 6 comeback. OKC lost a 3-1 lead to the Warriors and that was it for Durant. KD put up only 28 on +2 aTS that series, one of the very worst of his career.

He then joined the 73-win Warriors. Now, I’m not going to opine on my disgust for this decision, I’m only going to provide analysis for what happened on the basketball court. And what happened on the basketball court was the greatest team of all time. You can see my list of greatest teams here. An 11 SRS in the regular season combined with a 16-1 playoff run beating one of the best playoff offenses of all time in the 2017 Cavaliers and ran roughshod from opening tip in the season opener through the trophy presentation in the Finals. What’s not instructive is simply saying, of course they were so great, they were stacked! This is correct, but if we look at most other “super teams” in NBA history, they are not more than the sum of their parts. There’s usually an adjustment period or some player taking a serious back seat or role change. Durant, however, is the most plug and playable superstar maybe ever. His other-worldly efficiency and elite spacing provided a snowballing effect of Golden State’s already transcendent offense. By contrast, when you look at the Heat in 2011, there was an issue with having two ball-dominant wing slashers with limited 3-point shooting. This is why it took some time to build out the roster and adjust the play style for this to work. The Warriors simply swapped Harrison Barnes with Durant who doesn’t need the ball that much and was able to maintain most of his raw scoring and even focus more on defense.

His defense was generally good for most of his career, but peaked in Golden State. This might not be anything KD actually added to his game, as much as it was simply an easier situation. Still, Durantula’s supreme length allowed him to be a very good shotblocker his entire career. His block rates spike to career highs, 3.8 and 4% in ‘17 and ‘18. His size on the perimeter and ability to block shots always made him an additive player on defense, but he never had an elite defensive motor or great instincts. As mentioned previously, he was a pure scorer, and in many interviews, he really talks as if that’s all he’s focused on. Now, clearly it worked out for him, but I think a general resignation to basic passing when doubled and general effort on defense using your physical gifts is the small gap between him and being a top 5 player of all time.

After setting the Clippers franchise on fire in the 2019 playoffs with a 50-burger, Durant blew his achilles in the Finals against Toronto. I thought this would have been the end of his career, as it had been for nearly every other NBA player who had the same injury. Thankfully I was wrong. Durant proceeded to fully heal after missing the 2020 season and put up some of his best box score numbers ever in the 2021 Playoffs. Game 7 (the shoe size game) overshadows his even better game 5 (49/17/10/3/2 on +25 aTS in 48minutes) in a legendary duel against Giannis and the Bucks. Unfortunately, this was the end of peak KD. The Brooklyn experience involved a lot of vaccine controversy, Kyrie and Harden being Kyrie and Harden and the inexcusable firing of Steve Nash after Kyrie famously said they have “no coach”. The 2022 playoffs brought on Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics who made KD look human, limiting him to 24 on -1aTS in the first round sweep. Durant proceeded to change teams every few years, having a stint with the Suns and now a twilight run on the Rockets while still being a very good scorer and offensive player, with less games played, less defense, and more twitter accounts.

I try to keep the analysis on these player profiles to purely basketball, but when splitting hairs between the 10th, 13th and 15th best players ever, I think this has to be mentioned. KD was not happy in OKC, went to the most stacked team and best situation you could ask for and wasn’t happy after 3 consecutive finals trips. Then went to Brooklyn with all of his friends and was unhappy in 2 and a half years. Went to Phoenix where they mortgaged the whole state to bring him there and was unhappy in a few years, then goes to the Rockets and has comically juvenile twitter burner account conversations ragging on his teammates. I maintain that nearly any personality type can be a great player and a great leader. Even Kobe, who is generally understood as an A-hole and a bad teammate to most, was still able to win and cared enough to make it work with both Shaq and Pau. Duncan, Bird, Magic, LeBron, Shaq, and Kareem all had different personalities and leadership styles. For the most part I think the “killer instinct” stuff is noise. You don’t have to have MJ’s mannerisms and body language to be an all time player. But when you openly discuss only caring about scoring when defense and passing are the only two small inefficiencies in your otherwise brilliant package, and on top of that you’re unhappy every two or three years in every city and with every franchise, I have to do some kind of mental curving to the downside. As I write this Durant is making fadeaway double-covered jumpers in his 20th season. I consider him the 1st, 2nd or 3rd best scorer ever and I have his peak well into the MVP range, probably higher than Wade or Kobe when healthy (although post 2014 he never played a full season). But I have his peak lower than Curry, Magic or Bird. And while he does have excellent longevity, his decline on defense and numerous season ending injuries, I have him ranked somewhere in the 10-17 neighborhood with about 7 other legends, sitting at 14 for now.